The tech firm Bending Spoons is moving toward a possible initial public offering as early as next year, even as its leadership warns of an artificial intelligence bubble. The company’s IPO plans and strategic stance underscore the broader state of Europe’s tech exit climate and investor caution today.
IPO timing and valuation ambitions
Bending Spoons expects to nearly double its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to around US $1.4 billion in the next year, up from approximately US $700 million this year. Its latest funding round valued the company at about US $11 billion. With that backdrop, an IPO (most likely in the United States rather than Europe) is under active consideration. The timing reflects both the company’s scale ambitions and the fact that European public markets currently offer less favourable valuation dynamics for large tech plays.
Warning of an AI‑bubble and selective growth
While heading toward a public listing, Bending Spoons’ leadership, notably CEO Luca Ferrari, has publicly drawn parallels between today’s AI‑investment boom and the dot‑com surge of the early 2000s. He pointed out that alongside “solid projects” there exist many ventures with inflated valuations lacking sustainable business models. For its part, Bending Spoons adopts a strategy of acquiring mature digital products (for example, Vimeo and AOL) that have established user bases, then applying technology optimisation rather than chasing speculative AI hype.
What the IPO push signals for Europe’s tech exit environment
The impending IPO of Bending Spoons exposes key themes in Europe’s tech‑capital ecosystem. First, the fact that a major European tech firm may list in the U.S. signals continued weakness or sub‑optimal conditions in European public markets. Second, the company’s focus on scale, acquisition and margin improvement suggests investor demands are shifting toward profitability and tangible value rather than just growth. Third, the warning of an AI‑bubble points to heightened investor caution across Europe’s growth tech segment. Together these dynamics suggest exits, valuations and listings in Europe will remain under pressure unless structural changes intervene.
Strategic implications for companies and investors
For tech firms in Europe, the Bending Spoons story emphasises the need for clear business models, path to profitability and operational discipline before entering public markets. Companies that lean heavily on speculative AI promises without established revenue may struggle to meet investor expectations. For investors, the scenario signals that valuation discipline, business durability and exit strategy matter more than ever. The European tech ecosystem may need to focus on building deep‑tech, industrial complexity or differentiated platforms rather than chasing generic AI plays.
Takeaways
- Bending Spoons is considering an IPO as its adjusted EBITDA targets a US $1.4 billion mark and valuation sits around US $11 billion.
- The firm issues a warning about an AI‑bubble, emphasising value over hype in its acquisition‑led model.
- The potential U.S. listing highlights limitations in Europe’s public‑market conditions for tech firms and raises questions about exit pathways.
- For the wider tech ecosystem, a shift toward sustainable models, margin focus and exit realism is becoming critical.
FAQ
Q: Why might Bending Spoons list in the U.S. rather than Europe?
A: Because U.S. public markets currently offer higher valuations, greater liquidity and stronger investor appetite for large‑scale tech firms compared with many European exchanges.
Q: What does the warning about an AI‑bubble mean?
A: It signals that many firms may be overvalued based on speculative AI growth without substantive business fundamentals. Bending Spoons is distinguishing itself by acquiring proven assets and enhancing them via technology, rather than building purely speculative AI projects.
Q: How does this affect Europe’s tech exit climate?
A: It emphasises that exits are likely to remain challenging unless companies show strong fundamentals. Firms in Europe may increasingly look to foreign listings or scale via acquisition rather than relying purely on regional public‑markets valuations.
Q: What should tech founders and investors in Europe focus on now?
A: They should prioritise sustainable revenue growth, clear paths to profitability, strong product‑market fit and credible exit strategies. Avoiding over‑reliance on hype, especially in the AI space, and building differentiated capabilities remains key.
